The Halo Effect

The Halo Effect

Phil Rosenzweig

S Tier
When to Read
Right after Good to Great or Built to Last, to calibrate how much of the business-book canon you can actually trust. Even better if you read Thinking, Fast and Slow first: this book is one of Kahneman's biases with a business-book autopsy attached.
Main Takeaway
Company success creates a halo that contaminates everything we believe about what caused it. Results rewrite causes backwards, so judge the decision, not the outcome.
Style
Theoretical
Practical

I finished it, and it's the rare book that changes how you read other books. Rosenzweig's argument is simple and brutal: almost everything we believe about what makes companies great is contaminated by the halo effect. When a company is winning, every decision looks brilliant. When it struggles, the same decisions look reckless. Results reach backwards and rewrite what caused them. Then he takes the research behind Good to Great, In Search of Excellence and the whole genre apart, and what's presented as science turns out to be mostly successful companies describing themselves through success-colored glasses, in retrospective interviews and glowing press coverage. If you measure winners and losers with different yardsticks, no amount of statistics saves you. The studies are NOT junk science in the sense of faked numbers; they're junk science in the sense that the data can't answer the questions being asked.

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